Twins magic number 20196/15/2023 Given that they’re already third-place in the Wild Card hunt as is, I have my doubts they’d hold up in any other division. Helping to pump up that nearly-.700 record against losing teams is a ridiculous 15-1 run against the Tigers. ![]() If there’s anything separating out one of these teams, it’s the Indians’ massive disparity between their record against winning teams and losing teams. Really, all of these teams feel pretty close in quality, which makes sense. Of course, while the A’s’ record against winning teams might be the most worrying thing in that table, the Astros have also taken dealt with them pretty handedly in the season, in the only sample size that I would say approaches meaningfulness, so it feels nullified. Had they done better there, they’d probably have even better claims to be victims of geography than the Rays (the cellar-dwelling Mariners aren’t anywhere as bad as the Blue Jays or Royals, let alone the Tigers and Orioles, and the Astros are the only division rival that would match the Yankees in difficulty at the top), but like they say, you gotta take care of business against the bad teams. Bringing the A’s down is of course their failure against teams with losing records, especially the Blue Jays (0-6) and Mariners (8-7, still a winning record but much less impressive when everyone else is taking two of every three or better from them). This isn’t really a knock on the other three, it’s just sort of confirmation that none of them are really at the same level as the Yankees and Astros. But the Yankees and Red Sox are definitely harder opponents than the Indians and White Sox, and three games is small enough that I don’t know that I would necessarily say the Twins are in a difficulty tier ahead of the other three.įascinatingly, though, the only one of these four with a winning record against winning teams is Oakland. Granted, it’s not like the Rays, who are just three games behind Minnesota, are in a completely stacked division themselves, given the presence of the bad bird teams in Baltimore and Toronto. ![]() The AL Central is better than it was last year, but it’s still the weakest division in the AL, between the Tigers being the first team in the majors to 100 losses, the 92-loss Royals well-behind every other fourth-place team, and the third-place White Sox needing to go perfect the rest of the way to avoid a losing season. The Twins, as division leaders, are the obvious leaders here, but there’s a little more going on here. How do these teams stack up? Is there one that Houston would clearly prefer? Let’s just take a quick look across all four. So while the Twins are the most-likely of any single opponent, if you think the Astros are favorites to make up the half-game lead the Yankees currently have in the overall standings (and let’s be honest, we’re probably all at least a little biased that way), that still means the Wild Card Game winner is still the most likely opponent, even though we won’t know who that is until just before the ALDS starts. And of course, the Wild Card Game, as a single game, is pretty close to a toss-up. ![]() The Twins have almost as big of a climb to make it into second-place in the AL as the Indians have to overtake them, and the Wild Card play-in winner is hard-locked into the fourth seed. Really, the NL Central and Wild Card slots are the biggest drama remaining in the regular season.īut that’s not all bad, as it gives us a pretty good idea of who Houston might be facing come the first round of the playoffs, dependent on how their duel with the Yankees for top seeding goes. The Twins have a 4.0 game lead on the Indians, which theoretically could be interesting given that they have a three game series this weekend, but things still skew heavily their way due to their current lead and schedule after that series (both play the Tigers and White Sox, but the Indians face the Nationals and Phillies where the Twins get a pair of Royals matchups). Both East divisions have leads of 8 games or more and should be able to close things out without issue. The Dodgers became the first team to clinch a division on Tuesday, and the Astros are right now the favorites to follow them, with the next smallest magic number at 8.Īnd really, these last dozen-plus games will be relatively quiet, even outside of the AL West. The end of the season is rapidly approaching, with just two and a half weeks and five full series (plus a quarter of the current Oakland set) remaining.
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